Create Prediction

How does it work?

Step 1: Select a Category

Users start by choosing a category for their prediction from the predefined list:

  • Politics: Predictions about elections or significant political events. (Example: "[Candidate] will win the presidential election.")

  • Gaming/Entertainment: Predictions about game releases, movie premieres, or industry news. (Example: "[Game] will be released by [date].")

  • Technology & Innovation: Predictions about advancements, product launches, or breakthroughs. (Example: "Apple will unveil a foldable iPhone by this September.")

  • Environmental: Predictions about climate events, sustainability efforts, or global initiatives. (Example: "Global carbon emissions will record a decrease by 10% in next month's report.")

  • Social Trends: Predictions about viral trends, cultural shifts, or consumer behavior. (Example: "The #1 song on Spotify in December will be from a non-English artist.")

  • Other: Custom categories. Check Examples page.

Pro Tip: Use subcategories to make your prediction more specific (e.g., "Politics > Elections")


Step 2: Set Up the Prediction

After selecting a category, users fill out the prediction details:

  1. Prediction Text: Write a clear, concise statement for participants. (Example: “Will a specific environmental law be passed or enforced in the next year for X country?”)

  2. Start Date: Define when users can begin participating in the prediction.

  3. End Date: Set the deadline for the prediction to be resolved. (This will depend on the type of prediction)

  4. Source Type: Specify where the outcome will be verified. Examples include:

    • Official Science News Website

    • Election commission announcements

    • Official Magazine


Step 3: Choose the Prediction Format

The prediction creator selects the type of wager participants can engage in:

  1. Binary Outcome: Simple “Yes” or “No” predictions (e.g., “Above or Below $30,000?”).

  2. Multiple Options: Allows for several possible outcomes (e.g., “Which team will win?”).


Step 3: Creator Adds Initial LP

Before a custom prediction enters the Approval Curve phase, the creator must commit initial liquidity (LP) to ensure they have a stake in the prediction’s success. This requirement helps prevent spam and encourages high-quality, meaningful predictions.

LP Contribution Rules for Creators

  • The creator must contribute at least 1% and up to a maximum of 20% of the total LP required for the prediction to go live.

  • The more LP the creator contributes, the more confidence they show in their prediction, which may encourage other users to support it.

  • A 0.25% fee is applied when adding the initial LP. This fee is non-refundable, even if the prediction does not reach the required funding.

Once the creator submits the prediction and commits their LP, it moves to Step 4: The Approval Curve, where the community can decide whether to fund the remaining LP needed for it to go live.

This step ensures that creators are financially invested in their predictions, aligning incentives between them and the broader community.


Step 5: Submit for Approval Curve

Community Fund System

When a creator submits a custom prediction, it enters a 3-hour LP funding phase, known as the Approval Curve. During this period, users can decide whether to support the prediction by adding liquidity. If the required LP target is met within the given timeframe, the prediction automatically goes live, allowing users to trade on the outcome.

If the LP target is not reached, the liquidity is refunded to contributors (including the creator) minus a 0.25% fee, discouraging low-quality or unrealistic predictions.

All predictions currently in the Approval Curve phase will be displayed under the "Approval Curve" menu on the left side of the dashboard. Each prediction card will include:

  • Name of the prediction

  • Category (e.g., sports, politics, entertainment, etc.)

  • Progress Bar showing how much liquidity has been raised so far

  • Tag if the prediction was submitted by a user

This model ensures that predictions are filtered naturally by the community, as only predictions with strong user interest and liquidity backing will make it onto the platform.

Additionally, the Nostradamus team will oversee predictions at a high level, monitoring the platform for any potential misuse or violations of guidelines, but there is no final review before a prediction goes live.

By putting the decision-making power in the hands of the community and requiring financial commitment through LP, this system ensures that predictions are relevant, engaging, and backed by market confidence.


Note: Fees will be collected depending on each user's tier. The lower the user's Tier, the more fees will be collected through trading volume.


Leaderboards and Rewards

Creators with the most accurate or popular predictions can climb the leaderboards and earn special rewards, such as:

  • Exclusive Nostradamus Token Airdrop: Directly sent to their assigned Profile Wallet

  • Highlighted Predictions: Top predictions are showcased on the homepage.


Last updated